Bun­desnet­za­gen­tur ap­proves electricity and gas/hy­dro­gen sce­nario frame­works

Year of issue 2025
Date of issue 2025.04.30

The Bundesnetzagentur has today approved the electricity scenario framework and the gas/hydrogen scenario framework for the upcoming network development plans (NDP) 2025-2037/2045. The coordinated scenario frameworks form the basis for the continued planning of the electricity, gas and hydrogen transmission systems.

"The scenario frameworks provide a comprehensive outlook on Germany’s important energy infrastructure," said Klaus Müller, President of the Bundesnetzagentur. "The range of scenarios focused on enables us to take the effects of various energy policy decisions into account as Germany works towards a climate-neutral energy system."

Network planning for different development pathways

The Bundesnetzagentur held a consultation on the draft scenario frameworks submitted by the electricity and gas transmission system operators in summer 2024. It examined them with a view to the energy policy goals and in the interests of ensuring that all parties were working on a common basis. A wide range of possible developments towards decarbonisation are now shown in the scenarios amended and approved by the Bundesnetzagentur. Both scenario frameworks look at three scenarios each for 2037 and 2045. An additional scenario in the gas and hydrogen scenario framework refers to the year 2030 as an intermediate target year in the transition away from natural gas.

For the first time, the scenario frameworks contain shared, overarching assumptions on the required infrastructure for the gas/hydrogen and electricity networks, allowing consistent network development planning using, for example, the sites of power plants and electrolysers.

Electricity sector survey

The scenarios in the electricity scenario framework differ in the speed of renewables rollout and consumption. These differences between the scenarios are much greater than in the previous process, especially for the electricity consumption assumptions. The scenarios give a broad perspective on how, and how fast, the future transformation of the electricity system could be achieved. This enables the need for additional expansion in the transmission network to be assessed from various angles and adjusted where necessary.

Gas/hydrogen sector survey

The scenarios in the gas/hydrogen scenario framework also show a wide range of possible developments in the energy system. They differ in their assumptions on electrification, the use of hydrogen and move away from natural gas, and decarbonisation using other types of technology.
The need for expansion in the hydrogen network and the further transformation of the existing gas transmission systems can be examined from different perspectives and, if necessary, adjusted without ruling out particular options in advance.

Starting point for future network development planning

The approved scenario frameworks will provide the basis on which the electricity and gas transmission system operators and regulated hydrogen transmission network operators will identify the necessary network expansion and conversion measures in their draft network development plans. These will be examined and consulted on by the Bundesnetzagentur, as always.

The two scenario frameworks and the Bundesnetzagentur’s approvals have been published online at www.bundesnetzagentur.de/scenarioframework.