Bun­desnet­za­gen­tur up­dates gas sce­nar­ios for the win­ter

Year of issue 2023
Date of issue 2023.11.02

The Bundesnetzagentur has today published new scenarios for the gas storage levels and gas supply in Germany for winter 2023/2024.

"We're starting from a much better position than last year as we go into the heating season. Gas storage facilities are very well filled, while imports and savings are stable. However, it is too soon to give an absolute all-clear. A very cold winter would significantly drive up gas consumption. If the remaining Russian gas deliveries to south-east Europe were stopped and those countries faced shortages, they would have to be supplied partly via Germany," said Klaus Müller, President of the Bundesnetzagentur. "The cuts in consumption last winter were remarkable. Many people are more aware of how they use their heating. We hope for more of the same this winter. No one should be too cold, but we ask people to continue to think carefully about how they can reduce their consumption. Using gas sparingly will save money in the coming winter, too. The average household saved about €440 by using less gas between October 2022 and September 2023."

Much better supply

The Bundesnetzagentur now considers the risk of a tight gas supply in a normally cold winter to be low. The supply situation has improved considerably from last winter. There are additional possibilities to inject gas into the system from LNG facilities and the loss of gas flows from Russia has been compensated for by deliveries from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium. Gas storage facilities are currently 99,65% full as well. One of the major factors allowing the gas storage facilities to be refilled was the reduction in consumption last winter of about 20%. Consequently, storage levels were still relatively high even at the end of winter.

Possible risks to gas supply

The Bundesnetzagentur's current scenario calculations are restricted to a winter with extremely cold periods and average daily temperatures of up to -13 degrees, like the winter of 2012. In a total of six new scenarios building on the ones for winter 2022/2023, the Bundesnetzagentur has examined the remaining risks, including the effects of a cold winter and possible restrictions on existing supply and transport routes.

The Bundesnetzagentur based its modelling on consumers reducing their consumption by up to 10% from the average of the years 2018 to 2021 adjusted for a cold year. The main reason for this is that it is difficult to save more in a cold year. The consumption data from last winter, which was rather mild, show that even rather short cold spells had a strong effect on consumption-cutting efforts.

The Bundesnetzagentur also looked at a greater need for exports, for example because of a halt to Russian deliveries via the Ukraine route (Russian gas). It assumed that south-east Europe would have to be supplied with 20 GWh/h of natural gas from Germany in addition to the existing export capacity.

It also considered the consequences of an additional reduction in gas delivered to Germany owing to low temperatures. Last winter there were highly favourable conditions for transport from Germany's western neighbours, where the weather kept their own consumption low. When temperatures fell in those countries, Germany's imports from them fell, largely because the transport capability of the networks was reduced. To take account of this effect, two scenarios assume that imports in the cold year being modelled would be down by 15 GWh/h.

Results of the model calculations

The available gas volumes are sufficient to secure supply in three of the six scenarios examined. This result is conditional on imports and exports remaining at the same level as last year and a utilisation of at least 50% of LNG capacity. Storage levels are greatly influenced by reductions in consumption. If neighbouring countries had additional needs (scenario 2a), storage levels could fall to a minimum level of 23%.

The situation would become tense if exports rose and imports fell (scenario 3a). In that case, storage levels would fall to 17% even if up to 90% of the capacity of LNG terminals was used.

The supply situation could become critical in the event of the unfavourable developments in two scenarios (2b and 3b). In these worst case scenarios, a market situation in which low temperatures drove up national demand, neighbouring countries needed more and there were lower exports to Germany would mean that the gas available could not fully meet requirements.

Saving gas still important

In the face of these remaining risks, the Bundesnetzagentur continues to recommend using gas economically. The European target of a 15% reduction in consumption, which the EU Member States agreed on in summer 2022, still applies. The German gas system has not yet been fully upgraded for the new flow situation, which poses a particular challenge in low temperatures. If Germany maintains its past savings of 20% in the coming months, it will be better prepared for a very cold winter because it can leave its reserves in the storage facilities for as long as possible. Careful use of gas also reduces the cost burden on consumers, as prices are still high.
Tips on how to save energy may be found (in German) at https://www.energiewechsel.de/KAENEF/Redaktion/DE/Dossier/energiespartipps-fuer-verbraucher.html

The Bundesnetzagentur has published its current gas scenarios and FAQs at the following link: www.bundesnetzagentur.de/gas-krisenvorbereitung

The Bundesnetzagentur will update its gas status report daily again throughout the winter half-year. The gas supply situation indicators will also be published again and updated daily from now on. They can both be found at www.bundesnettagentur.de/current-gassupply.